Fresno Co. posts strong job growth
Gain in nonfarm positions highest since 2002.

By Juan Esparza Loera / Vida en el Valle www.vidaenelvalle.com

Fresno County will likely check in with its strongest nonfarm job growth in at least three years once the final counting is done for 2005.

Strong construction job gains early in the year helped the county gain 4,083 nonfarm jobs last year, the best performance since 2002, when 6,100 jobs were added, according to a Bee analysis of state jobs data based on an annual average of monthly figures.

"This is a pretty respectable showing by the Fresno economy," said Tapan Munroe, consulting economist for Merced-based County Bank.

In Tulare County, 333 nonfarm jobs were created during the year, a drop from 1,100 in 2004 but above 2003's gain of 200, according to the analysis.

The state will release its official 2005 report in March based on more complete data. The numbers could swing either way. But in growing areas such as the central San Joaquin Valley, job gains tend to get revised upward, economists say.

The December state jobs report, made public Friday, brought mixed results for the Valley.

Fresno County lost 200 nonfarm jobs last month as the jobless rate dropped to 8.5% from 8.9% in November. The rate was below the previous year's rate of 10.1%. Agriculture was the only sector posting significant gains, with 1,000 new jobs — a normal seasonal addition for the industry thanks to the citrus harvest.

Tulare County took a step backward after several strong months. The county's jobless rate jumped to 9.6% from 9.1% in November. The county lost 1,000 farm jobs and had zero nonfarm job growth. The farm job loss could be due to a continuing decline in vineyard acreage, speculated Paul Saldaña, chief executive of Tulare County Economic Development Corp.

But, continuing a long-running trend, the county's monthly jobless rate was down from the year before. In December2004, the rate was 11.7%.

"I think that's pretty significant," Saldaña said.

With several new distribution centers and retailers moving into the county, Saldaña expects 2006 to begin on a good note.

"We're seeing a lot of activity right now," he said, noting that at least 800 new nonfarm jobs could be created in the next few months.

Statewide, a seasonally adjusted 24,300 jobs were added in December, a strong showing considering the nation added just 108,000 jobs last month. Nine of 11 sectors added jobs, led by construction with 6,600 jobs.

Economists have been predicting a construction slowdown for months, pointing to a softening housing market. So strong construction job growth isn't always greeted with smiles.

"We just don't want to be building houses that aren't going to be sold," said Howard Roth, chief economist for the state Department of Finance.

In the Valley, construction job growth reached its peak last summer. In Fresno County, construction employment has remained constant at 23,100 for six consecutive months. Tulare County lost 200 construction jobs in December.

But even as residential building slows, industry executives are expecting a boost from government-funded projects. They point to Gov. Schwarzenegger's massive $222.6 billion public works proposal and smaller initiatives, such as the push to renew Fresno County's Measure C transportation sales tax, which, if approved by voters, would partly be used to pay for new roads.

"The construction industry is looking very positive for the Central Valley and the whole state," said Kim Sloat, Fresno-based regional manager of Harris & Associates, a construction management and engineering firm that specializes in public works projects.
Without a doubt, construction job growth has been the key to the Valley's economic turnaround.

On an annual average basis, Fresno County added 2,175 construction jobs last year, up from 1,900 the year before, according to preliminary figures.

But economic trends suggest that the performance will be tough to match this year. Munroe expects the economy to be driven by three factors: business investment in technology, consumer spending and export growth.

The region could get a boost from consumer spending as it continues to evolve into a regional shopping center, he said, and farmers might benefit from export growth.

But the Valley won't gain much from the corporate spending because there isn't much of a high-tech sector here, he said.

The No. 1 sector has been housing construction, and Munroe said, "That's slowing down without any question."